Can nature really help predict weather?
- Meghan McMahon
- 9m
- 3 min read
Ways to predict the weather are passed down from generation to generation. Let’s talk about some of these common weather predictions to see if any of them have merit.
Prediction No. 1: The woolly bear caterpillar
It is said that the coloring on a tiger moth caterpillar, also called a woolly bear caterpillar, in the autumn months can predict how harsh the upcoming winter will be.
These caterpillars are black on both ends with a reddish-brown midsection. When the reddish-brown section is thicker, it is said the winter will be mild. If the reddish-brown section of the caterpillar is narrow, the winter will be harsh.
While considered folklore, this method of winter weather prediction was at one time proven accurate about 80% of the time! However, there is evidence that the number of brown hairs has to do with the age of the caterpillar and when it started growing. Is this fact or fiction? The jury is still out!
Prediction No. 2: Persimmon seeds
According to folklore believed to originate in the Ozark Mountains, you can predict the coming winter weather by slicing a persimmon seed in half.
If you see a spoon shape in the seed, there will be a lot of heavy, wet snow to scoop. A fork shape means light, powdery snow and a milder winter. If you see a knife, you can expect to be “cut” by cold, icy, windy weather.
Words to know
Folklore: The traditional beliefs, customs and stories of a community passed through generations by word of mouth.
Merit: The quality of being particularly good or worthy.
Reliable: Consistently good in quality or performance.
The University of Missouri Jefferson County Extension Office studied this method for nearly two decades, checking local seeds in the fall and comparing the shapes with the winter that follows. The seeds have been accurate more than 75% of the time. That means there’s a good chance checking a persimmon seed could give us an idea of what kind of winter weather to expect.
Prediction No. 3: Groundhogs and their shadows
As they saying goes, if a groundhog sees its shadow on Groundhog Day, there will be six more weeks of winter. If the groundhog does not see its shadow, there will be an early spring. This tradition started on Feb. 2, 1887, as a halfway point between winter solstice and the spring equinox. If the day was bright and sunny, spring would be early. If the day was cloudy and gloomy, there would be six more weeks of winter.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently looked at the track record the most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil. According to the NOAA, Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions have only been correct about 30% of the time. That means whether he sees his shadow isn’t a reliable indicator of when we can expect it to start to feel like spring.
A lot of these myths are based on human observations of their outdoor surroundings. As we’ve seen, some seem to be more reliable than others.
What signs can you look for that help you predict the weather? Be attentive to patterns in animal behaviors, plants and the skies. If you keep an eye out in your neighborhood for these signs, they may help you know what to expect from the weather.